First Move Statistics
(Friday, 01 February 2008) Written by Charlie92
Sometimes I come across people who ask about the best openings in chess. The following 2 tables are taken from a large database of games (5,025,077 total). There are 20 different first moves as seen in the first column. Table 1 is sorted as to frequency, the most common go first, and so on. The most common first move is e4, then d4, Nf3, c4, g3, f4, and so on. e4 is used 50.3% of the time, and d4 is very far at 31.8%. The least common is Na3.

Table 2 might be more interesting, sorted to outcome or scores. 100% score means White always wins, while 0% means Black always wins. A score of 50% demonstrates equal chances. Not surprisingly, White has more wins (53.9%). Not counting the unusual openings (because Na3 scores 65%), Nf3 gives the best outcome for White, followed by d4, c4, g3, e4, Nc3, etc.

In summary, while e4 is the most common first move, Nf3 gives the best chances for White.

Table 1 - Sorted by Frequency:
Move ECO Frequency Score AvElo Perf AvYear %Draws
1: e4 B00a 2532612: 50.3% 53.3% 2240 2264 297 29%
2: d4 A40a 1600063: 31.8% 54.8% 2284 2314 1993 32%
3: Nf3 A04 393112: 7.8% 55.2% 2309 2334 1993 35%
4: c4 A10 355488: 7.0% 54.5% 2282 2308 1992 33%
5: g3 A00t 36390: 0.7% 54.3% 2315 2328 1993 33%
6: f4 A02 33585: 0.6% 48.0% 2094 2119 1993 25%
7: b4 A00p 22332: 0.4% 49.4% 2027 2066 1993 23%
8: b3 A01 19943: 0.3% 50.6% 2231 2241 1995 29%
9: Nc3 A00l 16144: 0.3% 51.5% 2144 2176 1996 26%
10: e3 A00k 4154: 0.0% 42.9% 2049 2049 1992 21%
11: d3 A00j 3023: 0.0% 47.0% 2141 2135 1996 25%
12: g4 A00n 2989: 0.0% 49.0% 2007 2034 1993 16%
13: a3 A00f 2433: 0.0% 47.7% 2122 2132 1994 24%
14: c3 A00i 1480: 0.0% 48.0% 2153 2173 1994 25%
15: h3 A00d 399: 0.0% 45.2% 2193 2212 1996 24%
16: h4 A00c 292: 0.0% 52.0% 2047 2047 1997 21%
17: Nh3 A00g 256: 0.0% 42.1% 1995 2015 1995 19%
18: f3 A00b 174: 0.0% 47.1% 2048 2008 1997 14%
19: a4 A00e 139: 0.0% 44.2% 2048 1894 1993 35%
20: Na3 A00h 68: 0.0% 65.4% 2109 2151 1993 13%
21: [end] A00a 1: 0.0% 100.0%     2002 0%
TOTAL:   5025077:100.0% 53.9% 967 988 284 31%

Table 2 - Sorted by Score:
Move ECO Frequency Score AvElo Perf AvYear %Draws
1: [end] A00a 1: 0.0% 100.0%     2002 0%
2: Na3 A00h 68: 0.0% 65.4% 2109 2151 1993 13%
3: Nf3 A04 393112: 7.8% 55.2% 2309 2334 1993 35%
4: d4 A40a 1600063: 31.8% 54.8% 2284 2314 1993 32%
5: c4 A10 355488: 7.0% 54.5% 2282 2308 1992 33%
6: g3 A00t 36390: 0.7% 54.3% 2315 2328 1993 33%
7: e4 B00a 2532612: 50.3% 53.3% 2240 2264 297 29%
8: h4 A00c 292: 0.0% 52.0% 2047 2047 1997 21%
9: Nc3 A00l 16144: 0.3% 51.5% 2144 2176 1996 26%
10: b3 A01 19943: 0.3% 50.6% 2231 2241 1995 29%
11: b4 A00p 22332: 0.4% 49.4% 2027 2066 1993 23%
12: g4 A00n 2989: 0.0% 49.0% 2007 2034 1993 16%
13: c3 A00i 1480: 0.0% 48.0% 2153 2173 1994 25%
14: f4 A02 33585: 0.6% 48.0% 2094 2119 1993 25%
15: a3 A00f 2433: 0.0% 47.7% 2122 2132 1994 24%
16: f3 A00b 174: 0.0% 47.1% 2048 2008 1997 14%
17: d3 A00j 3023: 0.0% 47.0% 2141 2135 1996 25%
18: h3 A00d 399: 0.0% 45.2% 2193 2212 1996 24%
19: a4 A00e 139: 0.0% 44.2% 2048 1894 1993 35%
20: e3 A00k 4154: 0.0% 42.9% 2049 2049 1992 21%
21: Nh3 A00g 256: 0.0% 42.1% 1995 2015 1995 19%
TOTAL:   5025077:100.0% 53.9% 967 988 284 31%
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