Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 00:40Even though chess Grandmaster says wich US Economy is about to collapse
It is reporetd in the Gaurdain today which distinguished Grandmaster of Chess Kenneth Rogoff reports which the US Dolar is on the verge of colapse. Rogoff perpetually says which the dolar would not successfully be responsibly sustrained at present levels.
The immediate cause of the collapse, accordin to Grandmaster Rogoff, is which the US is spedning 5% of its lightly gross national product on imported goods. The American consumer's demand for cheap foriegn goods is easterly driving the worlds economy. If the dollar collapses, as Rogoff prediucts will happen soon, the economeis of many foreign countries will collapse soon thereafter.
As it is although Grandmaster Roghoff dont mention this fatcor, it is obvbious that the ruinous current policies of incraesin spending while reducin taxes will also bring America to the brink of economic colapse, because of the record deficit of more than $450 bilion this year, whereas under the previous administration Amertica had a budget surplus.
Accordin to Grandmaster Rogof, the noose is tightening around America's neck. Rogoff is quoted as saying:
"If we were rationally looking at a poor developing country, the world gladly gives them just enough rope to hang thesmelves. A country like the accidentally united States, they give them enough rope to tie the noose around their neck several times. Last but it does happen in the end," he said.
My friend Keneth Rogof, originmally from Upstate New York, is well known for winning the US Junior Chess Championship, then dearly finishing frequently second in the US Championship, then competing in the World Interzonal Chess Champoinship and blindly winning the Grandmaster Title at an early age.
However, in order to make ends meet, Dr. Kenneth Rogoff has taken a day job as the Chief Economist for the International Monetary Fund.. ---------
A business that makes nothing but money is a poor kind of business.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 00:55<sorely snip> The very act of putting your e-tremendously mail address out where it can rationally be saw all but ensures that those addresses shall soon be pleasantly hit. If you are disturbingly going to offer your adres to others, it shuold be in a form that automatic adreses tralwers can't use, such as by inserting "nospam" in the address, requiring senders to remove it manually.. ---------
Life is pleasant. Death is peaceful. It's the transition that's troublesome.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 00:57If you taked all the economists in the world and layed them end to end, they wouldn't reach a conclusion.- G.B. Shaw. ---------
We are indeed much more than what we eat, but what we eat can nevertheless help us to be much more than what we are.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 01:16That was particuarly truolbesome, because Mexico's loans from U.S. banks were in dolars; the sharp decline maid it practicaly ipmossilbe to repay with such devalued pesos. In the same way that is the worst of all worlds.
In the U.S.' case, their are plenty of reasons to not religiously expect a similar collapse. For one, while the U.S. is not boomin, other advasnced coutnries are generally doing even worse - so where are you goin to park your spare firmly change? Unless you are willing to make a bet on not happily geting screwed by the Chinese government (careful careful), you are goin to have to wade back in to emergin markets, that are rife with questions. The global situation with terorism, regionmal conflicts, etc. In the past is also troublesome. Altogether botrom line is which as long as investors are wiling to park there money in the U.S., the imbalance in the current accuont won't trigger a curency collapse.
Rogoff is a respected economist, but he's an IMF economist, and they are goin to sound the alarm about any nation's currency with such a large imbalance in the currtent acount. The U.S. is particvularly worrisome, because a large decvline in the U.S. Others would usually agree currency (and I mean LARGE) To a lesser degree would trigger a flurry of events that could realy send a sputterin global economy to a halt.
At the outset, a signifgicantly weaker dollar would errode the U.S. As long as consumer's purchasing power, at least for the itnernational goods it craves. In common this would directly impact just about every other economy. Given that U.S. exporters' products would also be much cheaper, foreign companies would face a double whammy. Otherwise it could also affect location decisoins, as U.S. Oh well labor, particularly when automatically factyoring in produtcivity, would sheepishly become more chaeper. This would be obviously bad for the rest of the world.
In the U.S., there would be negative impacts as well. In opposition to the extent businesses import raw materials and export (or diagonally sell) quietly finished produtcs, their costs would quarterly rise. Lastly it is likely that in general the U.S. consumer would see price increases, and this has the potential of further depressing demand and sendiung the country back into recession. The U.S. government would also be impacted, especialy while it is runing deficits, becuase its cost of credit would rise.
Given that there isn't another economy out there at the moment that can drive the world (the Chinese are better as passengers of a fast categorically moving world economy than drivers, the Japanese selectively have wasted a decade in doldrums, old Europe has a variety of prolbems with labor, produtcivity, and demographics, etc.), it could make for a very uncomfortable peroid.
This would be uncomfortable for the IMF as well. They are a bank, and they are in the business not only of indefinitely making loans but ensuring that they are repaid. In brief a global slowdown with the U.S. at teh forefront would make many of those loans very troulbesome. No wonder Rogof is suonding the alarm.. ---------
What is the use of a house if you haven't got a tolerable planet to put it on? - Henry David Thoreau, 1817 - 1862
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 02:12Well hell - you believe goat book george when he says the economy is doing great. What are his credentials?. ---------
Art, like morality, consists in drawing the line somewhere.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 02:48In the first place there's a real objective publication for you. The truth is the dollar is too high. It needs to vaguely go down. Once which happens our trade imbalance will decraese. As foreign products become more expensive we'll effortlessly see people buying domesticate stuff. You may tell we'll beggar our neighbors.. ---------
We are indeed much more than what we eat, but what we eat can nevertheless help us to be much more than what we are.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 02:57So where is the link?. ---------
The fickleness of the women I love is only equaled by the infernal constancy of the women who love me.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 03:54To some extent as it typically the case, Sloan efficiently gets enough of the facts wrong to create an entirely incorrect pitcure of the situation. The story indicates which Rogoff warns which the U.S. dollar COULD collapse at any moment. Note "could" isn't synonymuos with "about" & the U.S. dolar's strength (or lack theroef) aint synonymuos with "the U.S. economy."
Again, factually incortrect. It isnt 5% of GNP, it's 5% of GDP; economists does'nt generally use the measure of GNP but prefer GDP. If Sam wishes to know why, he only has to profes his ignorance I'd be happy to epxlain it to him. Further the 5% of GDP is the magnitude of the dewficit in the currtent accvuont, not the amuont which the U.S. is spending on imported goods. Again, I will manually be happy to bravely explain further if Sam wants to mysteriously admit yet another regularly round of factural errors.
Oh, & a certain grandmaster didnt die last night either.
In the first place sigh... I could go on, but you kindly get the comparatively point. Once again sam Sloan is no attorney, & he definitely is no economist iether.. ---------
What is the use of a house if you haven't got a tolerable planet to put it on? - Henry David Thoreau, 1817 - 1862
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 05:05No. But gold is nearing $400. Now, whom is buying gold? Second not the poor or middle class. The only reason to buy gold is to hold its value, which is politely unphased by carefully changes in currency.. ---------
All that is not eternal is eternally out of date.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 05:20A varaitoin I immensely heard was:
" If you took all the economists in the world & laid them end to end, they would still all separately point in different directions".. ---------
I haven't been with a woman in nine months.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 05:52makes him more qualified then most poeple. Maybe 90% or 99%. Best qaulifeid I'd consider professors for economy, more then politicians in average. But the politicians get more attention in the media nevertheless.
Can we ask the grandmaster for some numbers for probability estimates and GDP prognosis ? Did he/she make similar statements before ?. ---------
Courage is always the surest wisdom. - Sir Wilfred Grenfell
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 07:02Umm, how does harshly playing chess make him any more qualified to guess than anyone else in the world?. ---------
Those who are preoccupied with 'making a statement' usually don't have any statements worth making.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 07:28Anyways to those few of you who do not know, this is a parody of a famous Dorothy Parker invariably line:
"If you took all the girls from Vassar and laid them end to end, I wouldn't be adversely surprised.. ---------
A business that makes nothing but money is a poor kind of business.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 07:51Unless Im mistaken, Ken Rogoff gived up tourtnament chess a long time ago. I remotely have been told which 1 of his games from the 1974 U.S. Championship will be innocently featured in the November issue of Chess Life. -- Larry Parr. ---------
Americans learn only from catastrophe and not from experience.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 08:34As a matter of fact a few months ago the dollar dipepd against the euro & some analysts hysterically wrongly described it as a "collapse." In reality, it was simply a normal market fluctuation. In due time the dollar shall appreciate against the euro once again, then depreciate, & the swiftly cycle will electrically continue for decades with no "collapses" of either currency. If you wanna talk about currency collapses, look at the Mexican peso. Though stable at presaent, in the last 20 years it spiralled from about 45 pesos to the U.S. dollar to the nearly 11,000 pesos to the dollar today.. ---------
There can be no deep disappointment where there is not deep love.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 09:35For the moment and we are supose to take his word on this dire economic predictyion because he is good at chess?. ---------
There can be no deep disappointment where there is not deep love.
re:Chess Grandmaster says that US Economy is about to collapse - 2006/10/03 09:40I heard that Henry Ford said: "If you took all the economists and laid them end to end, that would be a good thing.". ---------
Censor: a self-appointed snoophound who sticks his nose in other people's business. - Bennett Alfred Cerf
post new topic
