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Chess Rating vs. Expected Results

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Chess Rating vs. Expected Results - 2007/03/21 20:21 There are lots of pages on the Internet discussing the Chess rating also known as Elo rating. This is a page that I found interesting as it related how the difference in rating should compare to the expected results between two players.

http://chess.about.com/od/chessratings/ss/aa07b17_3.htm

The page provides a table that relates expected game results to rating differences.

A difference of 677 points in rating such as the difference between a player rated 2000 and one rated 2677 means that the player rated 2000 would only have a 1% chance of winning a game (or in other words the player may win 1 out of 100 games). The same difference exists between a player rated 1200 and one rated 1877.



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Chess Rating vs. Expected Results - 2007/03/21 22:14 Is ELO rating not very flexibly useable? I mean is it not used by every institution/chess-club independably taking 'their' own input/feedback to what should be the result?

(If I'm talking nonsense please tell me so but I thought I had read that this ELO rating system only had hystorical meaning and nowadays FIDE-rating was being used )



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Re:Chess Rating vs. Expected Results - 2007/03/21 23:09 From the wikipedia site
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELO_rating_system

Élő's system was adopted by FIDE in 1970

The phrase "ELO rating" is often used to mean a player's chess rating as calculated by FIDE. However, this usage is confusing and often misleading, because Élő's general ideas have been adopted by many different organizations, including the USCF (before FIDE), the Internet Chess Club (ICC), Yahoo! Games, and the now defunct Professional Chess Association (PCA).


The real difference in the ratings between different organizations is not so much due to significant differences in the statistical formula being used but that each one's rating is only valid for the statistical data that the organization doing the rating has. So a FIDE rating for one user only has real comparative value when compared with the FIDE rating of another user. The USCF rating for one user only has real comparative value when compared with the USCF rating of another user.

Some effort has been made to compare users across rating systems using performance of a number of users who have been rated in both systems. This is how statistically it is possible to say that a persons USCF rating is X amount higher or lower than their comparative FIDE rating would be. It is all just comparison between players results in a particular performance database.

So as a result there is no hard and fast rule that says a person with a certain rating is capable of this or that specifically it is just valid for evaluating comparative strengths between individuals who have been rated in that particular rating system.

So how did a particular rating get assigned to the first rated players?
http://chess.about.com/od/chessratings/ss/aa07b17_3.htm
Already in 1959, the USCF rating system arbitrarily used 2000 as the upper level for strong club players and 200 point divisions to assign players to classes. Elo kept these measures because they were 'steeped in tradition'.

So compared to these first specifically assigned players everyone who got rated was compared to these specific players and given a comparative rating. Now there has been a lot of drift of the ratings due to the nature of statistics and as a result you will hear talk of deflation of ratings and measures used to try and compensate.

There have been some efforts to estimate the rating of players that were never rated in an existing system. This would be a historical rating system. See this page...
http://members.shaw.ca/edo1/



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Re:Chess Rating vs. Expected Results - 2007/03/22 22:31 Thank you rtaylor777, that is a very comprehensible explanation you gave here.

Only, still (and forgive me if I sound dumb) - there exists the 'sub' 'sub' and 'sub' interdivision into ratings and not on an overall account (because, as I understand it - it is impossible to introduce all statistics into an overall account).

Am I right?



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Re:Chess Rating vs. Expected Results - 2007/03/23 01:00 I'm sorry Dame, I'm not able to understand the question. By account are you referring to an account on a chess server?

The way that rating an individual should work is the ratings of others that they play games against are fed into a formula along with the results win, lose or draw. Everyone starts out with a particular assigned rating (sometimes 1500) and then they lose or gain rating based on the results of games they play against other rated players. After they have played enough games (usually around 29) they are given an official rating. Until they play enough games the rating they have is considered only provisional because there isn't enough data about them to be statistically accurate.

In tournaments if there are enough contestants the organizers will split the contestants in to groups of players (divisions) of similar strength. The divisions can get more and more specific as the group gets larger.

When competing for championships in an area (or zone) there are a number of sub-zonal tournaments that are used to try and refine who will move on to be in the championships. The more contestants the more sub-zonal tournaments that will be required.

In terms of the size of the database of players and their results I don't believe that it is large enough that Fide would not be able to rate you properly based on your performance against any other rated contestant in a tournament.

There is probably more of a concern due to the isolation physically of the contestants who play in over the board chess competitions. Players in isolation provide a problem to statistics as for example in a small community if the same small group of players compete over and over their ratings will adjust to reflect their relative strengths to each other but without any outside players their ratings would really have no relative bearing to the rest of the chess community. So it is important for the higher level chess players to travel around so they can introduce some correction to the ratings in outlying areas as they can become overly inflated. Also if some of these individuals in the outlying areas can travel to competitions it helps.

From a chess server point of view (although I'm not aware of this) I suppose it is possible they have split their player base into separate groups (citing size of data for the player base as an excuse). If you are in one of these groups and you are only able to play rated games with members of your group then the rating would only be valid when compared with the ratings of other members of your group.

Perhaps I answered your question
Take Care,



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Re:Chess Rating vs. Expected Results - 2007/03/23 01:08 double post hmmm....

Post edited by: rtaylor777, at: 2007/03/23 01:20



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